Research

Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystem - [ www.pobex.org ]
Using US and international observational datasets combined with physical and biological models, this project investigates the mechanisms of climate-related variability in three Pacific boundary ecosystems: Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and California Current System (CCS) referred to as the Northeast Pacific (NEP), the Humboldt or Peru-Chile Current System (PCCS), and the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region. - [ OpenDAP data access ]

Pacific Ocean Decadal Variability & Climate Change- [ www.podx.org ]
This project aims to understand the mechanics of the natural low-frequency modes of Pacific variability and how they are expected to respond to anthropogenic climate change. The first research goal of this proposal is to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the Canonical ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the central Pacific warming (CPW) ENSO and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) modes are represented in the IPCC AR4 and AR5 coupled climate models during the 20th century, and how these dynamics and statistics are projected to evolve under continued greenhouse forcing during the 21st century. The second research goal of this proposal is to identify and quantify the statistical significance of any anthropogenic changes in CPW/NPGO variance with respect to natural variability, and identify the specific dynamics responsible for the CPW/NPGOʼs response to climate change. This project brings together a diverse group of climate scientists that pursue these research goals using a wide range of methodologies designed to isolate, quantify and diagnose the effects of anthropogenic forcing on Pacific decadal climate variability. These methodologies include (a) linear inverse statistical techniques to examine the IPCC models (Di Lorenzo, Anderson, Schneider), (b) annually-resolved multi-proxy climate reconstructions over the last 300 years to examine the range of decadal and secular variations of the climate modes (Cobb, Di Lorenzo), and (c) targeted coupled climate model experiments to isolate specific mechanisms of the low-frequency modesʼ responses to climate change (Vimont, Alexander). Overall, improved understanding of the historical, current, and future evolution of the NPGO and PDO will provide significantly enhanced predictability of decadal-scale variations that influence global weather and climate patterns, as well as marine ecosystems.

Low Frequency Variability in the North Pacific - [ The NPGO ]
Decadal fluctuations in salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll, a variety of zooplankton taxa, and fish stocks in the Northeast Pacific are often poorly correlated with the most widely-used index of large-scale climate variability in the region - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We define a new pattern of climate change, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients and chlorophyll. The NPGO pattern extends beyond the North Pacific and is part of a global-scale mode of climate variability that is evident in global sea level trends and sea surface temperature. This projects uses a combination of high resolution ocean modeling ensembles and observational data to explore the physical mechanisms that are responsible for decadal-scale physical and ecosystem variations, which to date remain unclear. - [ OpenDAP data access ]

Inverse Ocean Modeling - [ IOM ]
The IOM is a modular data assimilation system which is being developed using Information Technology, including modern software engineering concepts. The IOM implements weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational assimilation.

Indo-Pacific decadal coupled dynamics - [ no webpage ]
The goal of this project is to build a new coupled ocean-atmospheric model to study decadal variations of the indo-pacific thermocline and of the Indian monsoon. The ocean component is the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which allows better resolution of the upwelling boundary systems with respect to other ocean general circulation models. The atmospheric component is the SPEEDY general circulation model, which is a fast and computationally inexpensive reduced physics model.

Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System  - [ MED-ROMS ]
Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHM) are implemented to establish ensemble ocean forecasting tools for the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). Med-MultiModel-BHM is a superensemble forecast system that will include contributions from a Mediterranean implementation of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) to combine with MFS forecasts. - [ OpenDAP data access ]

California Current Ecosystem - [ CCE-LTER ]
The California Current System is a coastal upwelling biome, as found along the eastern margins of all major ocean basins. These are among the most productive ecosystems in the world ocean. The California Current Ecosystem LTER is investigating nonlinear transitions in the California Current coastal pelagic ecosystem, with particular attention to long-term forcing by a secular warming trend, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino in altering the structure and dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem. The California Current sustains active fisheries for a variety of finfish and marine invertebrates, modulates weather patterns and the hydrologic cycle of much of the western United States, and plays a vital role in the economy of myriad coastal communities.

Dynamics of Ocean Climate in the Gulf of Alaska - [ GOA ]
The ocean circulation of the Gulf of Alaska is studied using a combination of eddy-resolving ocean models, observational analyses and ocean data assimilation products to elucidate the dynamics that controls the mean, mesoscale variability and interannual to interdecadal climate variations of the Alaska Current, the Alaskan Stream, as well as the broader-scale interior gyre flows. This proect i funded by NSF through the US GLOBEC program- [ GLOBEC Ocean Modeling Page ]

Intra-American-Seas Real-time Forecasting System - [ IASFoR ]
The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used for data assimilation and ocean prediction in the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) with particular emphasis on the Caribbean Sea. Through an innovative partnership between the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), the Royal Caribbean Cruise Line (RCCL), NOAA and NSF, an RCCL cruise ship, the Explorer of the Seas, has been equipped with a comprehensive suite of oceanic and atmospheric sensors, which provide continuous observations along two cruise tracks that circumnavigate the Caribbean Sea once every 2 weeks. This is an unprecedented research data set, and provides an unique opportunity to test ROMS and its associated ocean data assimilation and prediction systems in real-time and at sea. This can also be viewed as a proof of concept study both for similar enterprises that are planned for future commercial cruise ships in other parts of the world oceans, and for operational data assimilation and prediction aboard Navy vessels at sea.